Climate Change Sensationalism

My previous posts may have given off the impression that Tuvalu is an island that is beyond saving, however, the importance of not buying into this sensationalist view has been highlighted to me by a paper by Mortreux and Barnett (2009) and I think it is important I share their important paper with you.

This sensationalised view of Tuvalu is something that has been spread widely by the media. Even The Inconvenient Truth contained images of flooding in Tuvalu accompanied by words exclaiming that such floods are the reason the population have had to evacuate from the island. However, such large scale evacuation is not the case and it is important that we do not commit Tuvalu to the history books just to publicise the negative impacts associated with climate change and thus gain public awareness.

Of 28 Tuvaluans questioned for this paper only 9 were expecting to move away from the island and of these nine only one gave climate change as the reason for migration with the others citing socio-economic reasons as the rationale to make such a move. This evidences well the fact that the situation is not perceived by the islanders of Tuvalu with the same negative attitude as is often reported by the media.

While I believe it is correct that the imminent threats posed by climate change to small island nations should be publicised, the take home message from this should not be that due to climate change destruction of these societies is assured. Instead the message I would promote is that yes, climate change does pose a serious threat to such nations, but, if action is taken now, then these societies can be saved. This sentiment is well expressed by Mortreux and Barnett (2009):

“...there is nothing inevitable about climate induced catastrophe in Tuvalu; deep cuts in emissions such that the rate of change is slowed, coupled with a systematic and well resourced suite of adaptation strategies can together enable island social-ecological systems to adapt such that negative demographic outcomes can be avoided.”

Some may question what the importance of the correct message is, as either way the issue of climate change and the devastation it can bring is publicised. However, publicising a message of guaranteed catastrophe can be dangerous on a number of levels. Mortreux and Barnett explain that this negative message and the associated discussion of inevitable displacement that it brings, acts to impede constructive discussion about the exact timing and magnitude of the negative impacts that are expected. As well as this, it also distracts from the formation of effective plans to adapt to and overcome the impacts of climate change. In addition, embellishing the extent of the crisis may cause investors and aid donors to alter the calculations of their expected returns and thus cause such activities to be reduced. Furthermore, this paper suggests that there is a danger that such a negative message may be taken on board by the island's inhabitants and may therefore lead to an increased feeling of vulnerability.

In conclusion I feel it is highly important, that while continuing to publicise the plight of Tuvalu the focus should be moved away from the negative discussions of migration and towards those more positive discussions of adaptation.  

Tuvalu: Island Under Threat

The short video below illustrates well many of the points I made in my previous entry and really brings home the influence that climate change is having on the people of Tuvalu. It's not all negative though as the video also looks at adaptation strategies being pursued by the people of Tuvalu as they look to implement strategies that will allow them to stay on their land.

Climate Change and Tuvalu

My last entry reviewed some of the threats that small islands face as a result of climate change, however I am aware that some might read this as a worst case scenario and think that no single island will face all these threats. To emphasise to you that this is not the case in this entry I will look specifically at the threats being faced by the island of Tuvalu.

Aerial view of Tuvalu (source).

Tuvalu is a nation located in the southwest Pacific Ocean which consists of nine small islands none of which exceed two metres above sea level. As a nation it has been propelled into the spotlight by the recent news that drought caused by the La Nina weather pattern has led to the declaration of a state of emergency in the country as water provisions arrive by airlift. These drastic measures are required to supply the country with water as Tuvalu is dependent on rainwater and therefore any reductions in the volume of precipitation can, and are, having a devastating impact. The islands complete dependence on rainwater has occurred as the islands freshwater lens (an area of groundwater where less dense freshwater sits atop of saltwater) has been contaminated by the intrusion of saltwater due to sea level rise. A lack of safe water is dangerous not just for consumption purposes but also for sanitation; a study looking at cases of diarrhoea in the pacific islands has found a strong relationship between low water availability and the high rates of diarrhoea (Singh et al, 2001).

In addition to contaminating groundwater salt water intrusion is putting food security at risk through the salinization of soil water. This is having a great impact on pulaka, a swamp taro which provides the islanders with a source of carbohydrate, which, due to its high salt intolerance has been found rotting in the ground (Ralston et al, 2004).

Land loss due to rising sea level is another major issue, it has been projected that if a sea level rise of between 50cm and 95cm occurs then one metre of shoreline could be lost each year. As at its widest Tuvalu reaches just 400m wide such a loss would be greatly significant. While I have been unable to find any papers which quantify the loss of land experienced, there is much anecdotal evidence. Probably the most striking of these is the request made to the government of Australia by the Tuvaluan prime minister to cede a piece of its territory so to enable Tuvalu to be re-established elsewhere (Leckie, 2009). It has also been acknowledged by older inhabitants of the islands that islets that they used to play on as children can no longer be seen above the water.

The impacts of climate change on coral reefs are also greatly important for the Tuvaluan people as they, like many small island communities, rely upon coral reefs, for food through the fisheries they sustain, for tourism and to protect shorelines from the direct impact of waves. However, reef growth rate in Tuvalu is extremely slow at just 2mm per year and thus it is not expected that the reef will be able to tolerate the much more rapid rate of sea level rise expected. This is an extremely serious threat to coral reefs and is made more so by the rising water temperatures and ocean acidification that are likely to accompany the rise in sea level (Ralston et al, 2004).

A Tuvaluan child appeals to participants at the Copenhagen climate summit (source).

By exploring the example of Tuvalu I hope I have shown that the threats outlined in my previous post were not a list of individual impacts, of which one or two may be faced by an island, but are in fact the impacts that can be seen to threaten a single island simultaneously as a result of climate change.

Small Island Vulnerability: An Overview

Small island states (Figure 1.0) are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to particular characteristics that they have. In this entry I will explore what these common characteristics are as well as giving a quick overview of what the issues are that small island states face with respect to climate change.

Figure 1.0:  Locations of small island states (Pelling and Uitto, 2001).

                              

The majority of small island states are low-lying with the elevation of many islands reaching its maximum at 3 to 4 m above present sea level (Lal et al, 2002). This means that even very small increases in sea level have the potential to cause a dramatic impact for people living on such islands. Rising sea levels pose a threat for many reasons; the most obvious of these is submersion of land resulting in a decrease in the habitable area. This is likely to result in the displacement of people especially in Pacific and Caribbean Islands where over 50% of the population live within 1.5km of the shoreline (Mimura et al, 2007). In addition, coastal erosion of beaches may result in a reduction in tourism and thus climate change may adversely affect the economy of such states for which tourism is a major source of income. Another serious consequence of sea level rise is the intrusion of salt water into groundwater aquifers, this is a serious problem for small islands as many already have a very limited water supply (Mimura et al, 2007). In addition inundation of land with salt water may reduce the area of fertile land and thus have a negative impact on agriculture which is greatly important to the people living on such islands.

During the 21^st century air temperature is predicted to increase by between 1^oC and 4^oC which will result in sea surface temperature (SST) rises. Increasing SST may result in coral bleaching if coral cannot adapt to this change in temperature (Kelman and West, 2009). Bleaching would be devastating for the people who inhabit small islands as coral reefs are important in sustaining fisheries that the people inhabiting such islands are dependent on as a source of food and income. This situation is likely to be further exacerbated by the increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) which result in increased oceanic absorption of CO₂ and thus acidification of sea water which can cause further damage to coral.

Climate change can also pose an imminent threat to human health. Many small island states are located in the tropics or sub-tropics where conditions are already extremely conducive to the spread of disease whether this is via food, water or other organisms. An increase in surface air temperature is likely to increase the abundance of disease vectors or disease causing microbes and as such a large number of diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera are likely to become increasingly common (Lal et al, 2002).

I hope having read this you now have a general understanding of the problems faced by small island nations in the face of climate change. In future posts I will expand on the information given here looking at the exact mechanisms that result in the threats outlined above as well as using case studies so to give real examples of these issues that as yet have only been discussed in a theoretical light.

Introduction

Climate change is an issue that is much discussed by politicians, the most powerful of which seem to move reluctantly from one climate summit to the next where they become involved in heated arguments in an attempt to draw up agreements that will reduce the extent of climate change in the future. However, even though concerted efforts are being made at such summits, binding agreements with respect to the reduction of emissions are very hard to come by.

However, worse than the slow pace of climate negotiations is the constant voice of climate change scepticism which is so often widely heard. Such scepticism is finding an audience in many countries around the world as people look for any excuse to disregard the issue of climate change and thus protect business interests or maintain their current lifestyle with little need to change even the smallest aspect. In just the last few days a prominent Chinese intellectual Zhang Musheng has proclaimed climate change an American conspiracy to increase sales of green technology. Even more worrying is the recent declaration by Rick Perry a candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination that he is not afraid to call himself a “climate change sceptic”.

In the meantime, while incessant political wrangling is ongoing and a stream of weakly evidenced climate scepticism continues to find itself a welcoming audience there are some societies which are already having to face up to the reality of anthropogenic climate change.

For example, due to increasing global temperatures the IPCC’s fourth assessment report (2007) predicts that sea level rise during the 21^st century could be anywhere from 0.18m to 0.59m.  Such a rise in sea level is easily brushed off as insignificant when sitting in London, a city in which a large amount of land sits at well over 10m above sea level. However, many people around the world will look at these figures with fear and trepidation, a 0.59m rise in sea level is not so insignificant when you live on a deltaic plane or an island which has an average elevation of just 1m above sea level. This is a reality that many societies around the world are being confronted with, and as such, under even the more modest of the IPCC’s projections, are expected to lose large areas of land as well as suffering from a wide range of other negative effects that will accompany such a rise.

In this blog I will explore, with particular focus on small island communities, the many ways in which climate change is already having a significant impact on societies around the world, as well as investigating historical climate change and the effect that this had upon past societies. By doing this I hope not only to present what is the reality at the front line of climate change, but also offer an insight into what the future holds for those societies which find themselves under threat today.